Price Analysis
PlanB’s Stock/flow model from Digitalik site
- Based on the original PlanB medium article.
PlanB’s Stock/flow ratio from Digitalik site
- p.s. this was my idea. 🙂
Willy Woo is analyzes bitcoin using “technical analysis” and analysis of fundamental network data. Here are some key charts/metrics.
Willy’s site: Woobull.com for up-to-date charts.
MARKET CAP
The market price multiplied by the coin supply. (a.k.a Network Value)
REALISED CAP by Coinmetrics.
The
value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in
other words an approximation of the value paid for all coins in
circulation.
NVT CAPS (experimental) by Willy Woo
Values
the network using its monetary velocity. In essence mapping velocity
back to Market Cap via NVT Ratio. NVT Caps has a tendency to compress at
accumulation bottoms. This metric is experimental and subject to
calibration error, if velocity deviates from historical norms this will
throw out the pricing model. This metric uses volume estimates from Coinmetrics Pro under license.
AVERAGE CAP
This is the “forever” moving average
of Market Cap. The cumulative sum of daily Market Cap values divided by
the age of the market in days.
DELTA CAP (experimental) by David Puell.
The
Realised Cap minus Average Cap. Useful for catching the market bottom,
and also as a timing indicator for market tops and the start of the bull
phase by tracking its oscillation between Realised Cap and Average Cap.
TOP CAP (experimental) by Willy Woo.
The average cap multiplied by 35. Historically has matched market tops.
INFLOW CAP
The cumulative value of all coins at the price they were mined.
FEES CAP
The cumulative value of all the fees paid on the network.
- Does RVT ratio correlate with market top or bottom?
- VWAP Ratio shows lots of room to the upside before a market top.
First created by Twitter user @icoexplorer, VWAP stands for volume weighted average price. In effect VWAP is an alternative method to Realised Price in determining average price the market paid for their coins. VWAP to Price ratio is therefore similar to MVRV Ratio and can be used to find market tops and bottoms. The shorter range VWAP Ratios for example over 7 or 90 days can be used to signal ideal top and bottom points for swing trading while the global VWAP signals the macro cycle top and bottoms.
When calculating VWAP, the standard method uses the commodity unit (i.e. BTC) for volume weighting, this chart deviates by using USD units. For Bitcoin due to its exponential rise in price, the two methods create different charts. These differences are small in shorter time cycles, but on longer time cycles the USD method has the effect of putting greater emphasis on more recent historical activity.
This live chart is dedicated to E Easterbrook, upon the request of @icoexplorer. On-chain volume estimates provided by Coin Metrics
Network Momentum is a view created by Philip Swift which looks into the value transmitted through the Bitcoin blockchain denominated in BTC value plotted against Bitcoin`s price. It serves as a leading indicator of Bitcoin bull markets. Sufficiently high levels of value throughput is needed drive bull markets.
Network Momentum, if it was corrected for Bitcoin`s expanding token supply, would essentially be Bitcoin Velocity. In other words an inverse chart of NVT Ratio.
The Diffiulty Ribbon speaks to the impact of miner selling pressure on Bitcoin`s price action. When network difficulty reduces its rate of climb, miners are going out of business, leaving only the strong miners who proportionally need to sell less of their coins to remain operational, this leads to less sell pressure and more room for bullish price action. The best times to buy Bitcoin are zones where the ribbon compresses. The ribbon consists of simple moving averages of Bitcoin network difficulty so the rate of change of difficulty can be easily seen.
- Mayer Multiple: Bitcoin price/200DMA
Introduced by Trace Mayer as a way to gauge the current price of Bitcoin against its long range historical price movements (200 day moving average), the Mayer Multiple highlights when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold in the context of longer time frames.
It`s worth noting as the market becomes larger and less volatile, the peaks are becoming less exaggerated. This is because a 200 day moving average baseline is a static yardstick against an ever growing, more stable, Bitcoin market. We should recalibrate what consitutes the overbought/oversold extremes on this chart accordingly.
Until now this chart has been displayed on a linear vertical axis, I created this chart as it`s important to have it plotted on a log chart to remove the visual skewing. (i.e. 10% above and 10% below the baseline should be visually the same distance).
The Mayer Multiple is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin Price by the 200 day moving average of the price